Archive for the ‘Stock Market’ Category

Before you start stock trading: first think if it is worth your time and money.

That was the good news. The bad news is that those companies are selling you the tools and service only. They do not sell you any guarantees of success. It does not matter if you profit or lose money, the trading company will get its fee for each trade anyway.

Since you are considering going into the stock market, most likely you are planning to get a significant return on your investment which should also be better than what you would get buy investing your money into mutual funds (less risky than single stocks) or even no-risk certificate of deposits (CDs) where returns are guaranteed.

Well, how can you get such returns? The answer of course is simple and well known: buy low, sell high. If you do it most of the time you’ll be a successful stock trader. Now the first problem comes: how do you know when to buy? There are probably several ways to do that, we do not discuss this here, let’s assume that you know somehow or think you do know. Lets say you got lucky and the stock after you bought it is going up, just as you planned.

Now another problem comes: when to sell? After the stock is up 20%, what do you do? Sell now, or wait until it is up 50%, 100% or 200%? Do you listen to investor news and do what everybody else does: selling, buying more, or continue holding the stock? If you choose one of the first two options, how much of the stock you should buy or sell? Or if you hold the stock, are you sure it will continue to go up, or you may end up waiting until the stock price is back to the original and than lose it’s value resulting in your losses.

The truth is some people actually do know the answers to those questions most of the time and actually make profit. The question is, are you as good as those people? Most people are losing money guessing and trying to time the market. If you’re new in this game and not planning to spend much time on research, chances are you will lose. You will be competing with professional traders, big players and insiders who profit mostly because many others keep losing. Plus what are the chances that you can predict the market? The chances are very slim.

Some may argue: “I had that stock, I sold it when it was up 20%, but if I did not sell it at that time, now it would be up 300%. How stupid I was when I sold it, if I did not I’d made a lot of money. I have to do this again. It really proves that I can make a lot of money there and it’s easy!” That is right you can make a lot of money, but it is not that easy as it looks. Lets assume you did not sell the stock at the time it was up 20%. Then what makes you think you would wait until it is up 300%? You may have sold it when it was up only 25%. Or it may go down several times below 20% increase, you could have thought it was going down forever and sold it even with a lower than 20% profit.

The bottom line is that it is easy to look at the past and see all the mistakes you’ve made. However it is very difficult to do right things for the future. Unless you know market trends well, understand related industries and stock company financials, most likely you will not be able to make profitable trades. Even professional traders do mistakes and lose money. If you are not one of them or not planning to become one, your best bet would be investing into CDs, mutual funds or your own business.

How to Find How Much Stock a CEO Holds

Corporate officers enjoy many additional benefits over rank-and-file workers. For the uninitiated, it may be surprising to learn the amount of stock compensation they hold. Are you curious about how much stock the CEO and other officers of a particular company control? You can find out very easily.

This is how to uncover the amount of stock held by the officer of any publicly held company. Go to the NASDAQ web site and enter the stock ticker symbol for the company you are interested in. Click on ‘Flash Quotes’. Use the drop down box to select ‘Insider Form 4′. Scan down the list until you find the company officer’s name you are interested in. Click on that name. Go to the top of the list which should be the latest date. Move your eyes to the far right column entitled ‘holdings’. That is how many shares that officer currently holds and controls. Multiply that number by the most recent price for the company’s stock and you will arrive at a dollar figure.

Of course, that figure will change from day to day. You may be amazed at just how high that number is. Consider that this is merely the officer’s current stock holdings. It doesn’t tell you how many shares he has sold in the past; it also doesn’t tell you how many shares the company will grant him or her in the future.

When you start to look at these figures you may find them amazing. If you are currently a company CEO or officer, the numbers will not shock you because you will already be familiar with them. However, if you are currently an employee for a publicly held company you may wonder about the discrepancy between your salary and the officers’ stock holdings.

Some will say, “but the CEO and other officers worked hard for their money”. And that may very well be true. But did they really work any harder than you on a day to day basis? And if they did, does the harder work they did add up to account for the discrepancy between an average worker’s pay and a company officer’s stock holdings? Chances are, the answer is no.

This leads to some interesting realizations about how our economy works. The days of serfdom are supposed to be over, but are they really? We now have an economic feudal system. The real estate owned and tribute collected by a monarch have been replaced with stock compensation for corporate officers and owners. But the serf or worker is the one who does the work. The monarch and his court are still the ones who reap the rewards.

In private companies you probably won’t be able to find out the information that you can find on the NASDAQ web site about publicly traded companies. I think it is a good thing that the SEC or Securities and Exchange Commission requires this information to be available to the public. Of course, it is meant to be available to potential investors. But if you own stock in your company via a 401K plan, then you are an investor.

Besides the NASDAQ web site, you can also find this information on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s web site. In fact, there is a wealth of information out there to discover. In many instances it is actually easier to find on the NASDAQ web site.

Perhaps knowing the value of the stock held by company officers will make you less timid about asking for that raise you’ve been thinking about. Knowledge often equates to power.

Against The Top Down Approach To Picking Stocks

If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securities. If you think logically about this approach for but a moment, you will recognize how truly foolish it is.

A stock’s earnings yield is the inverse of its P/E ratio. So, a stock with a P/E ratio of 25 has an earnings yield of 4%, while a stock with a P/E ratio of 8 has an earnings yield of 12.5%. In this way, a low P/E stock is comparable to a high – yield bond.

Now, if these low P/E stocks had very unstable earnings or carried a great deal of debt, the spread between the long bond yield and the earnings yield of these stocks might be justified. However, many low P/E stocks actually have more stable earnings than their high multiple kin. Some do employ a great deal of debt. Still, within recent memory, one could find a stock with an earnings yield of 8 – 12%, a dividend yield of 3- 5%, and literally no debt, despite some of the lowest bond yields in half a century. This situation could only come about if investors shopped for their bonds without also considering stocks. This makes about as much sense as shopping for a van without also considering a car or truck.

All investments are ultimately cash to cash operations. As such, they should be judged by a single measure: the discounted value of their future cash flows. For this reason, a top down approach to investing is nonsensical. Starting your search by first deciding upon the form of security or the industry is like a general manager deciding upon a left handed or right handed pitcher before evaluating each individual player. In both cases, the choice is not merely hasty; it’s false. Even if pitching left handed is inherently more effective, the general manager is not comparing apples and oranges; he’s comparing pitchers. Whatever inherent advantage or disadvantage exists in a pitcher’s handedness can be reduced to an ultimate value (e.g., run value). For this reason, a pitcher’s handedness is merely one factor (among many) to be considered, not a binding choice to be made. The same is true of the form of security. It is neither more necessary nor more logical for an investor to prefer all bonds over all stocks (or all retailers over all banks) than it is for a general manager to prefer all lefties over all righties. You needn’t determine whether stocks or bonds are attractive; you need only determine whether a particular stock or bond is attractive. Likewise, you needn’t determine whether “the market” is undervalued or overvalued; you need only determine that a particular stock is undervalued. If you’re convinced it is, buy it – the market be damned!

Clearly, the most prudent approach to investing is to evaluate each individual security in relation to all others, and only to consider the form of security insofar as it affects each individual evaluation. A top down approach to investing is an unnecessary hindrance. Some very smart investors have imposed it upon themselves and overcome it; but, there is no need for you to do the same.

9 Survival Tips for the Market Shakeout Blues

Investors who bought during the top of the frothy commodities rally are now panicking or kicking themselves. Neither activity helps an investor or trader think straight. Below are a few tips in dealing with the current market shakeout.

1. If you believe you invested in the right stock(s), then turn off your computer and do something enjoyable. Exercise is a great stress reliever. The market has already begun its shakeout. If you didn’t get stopped out, or failed to place earlier stops, your best opportunity lays ahead in picking up additional shares at a much lower price. Most of the experts we’ve interviewed tell us the next rally should start sometime between late July and Labor Day. In an attempt to interview the uranium guru James Dines in late May, we were told, “Call back in a couple of months.” That was a helpful clue that the markets were less than exciting. Mr. Dines is often eager to be interviewed, but recently he was not.

2. Do you believe the fundamentals which engendered the commodities boom have changed? If they haven’t, then the bullishness is only taking a breather. We don’t see any fundamental change in the markets. Russia still wants nuclear power, and its oil production may be peaking. China hasn’t announced the end of its nuclear expansion program. India wants to spend $40 billion on new nuclear reactors. If you are invested in uranium stocks, spot uranium jumped another dollar to $45/pound this past week. Hardly the end of the bull market.

3. If you worry about your investment in one stock or another, then stop watching the ticker and focus on the company fundamentals. Is the story still true or has it changed? See #7 A, B and C below.

4. There’s an old cliché that the time to buy is when you feel like dumping everything you own in the category. At the exact moment you want to sell your entire portfolio of uranium stocks, it may be wiser to add to your holdings. This applies mainly to the retail investor. Most of the professionals did dump at the top and are now slowly accumulating the shares of the naïve who waited until the washout to start selling off.

5. Has a major, earth-shattering event occurred? The last bull cycle in uranium ended with Three Mile Island (TMI). The last decent rally in the precious metals markets fell off a cliff after it was discovered Bre-X Minerals had perpetrated a fraud about its gold ‘discovery’ in Indonesia. Something significant and newsworthy always transpires, and it is also far-reaching. That is the trigger. As with TMI and Bre-X, those were the first shots which launched a later chain reaction to end those bull markets.

6. Before pulling the sell trigger, ask yourself: Do I really want to give up these shares to a bargain basement hunter, who will make a killing on my losses?

7. Since most of you will still panic, please review the following basics for any of the uranium companies you’ve read about:

A) How much cash does the company have in the bank? During shakeouts, cash is king. Prescient companies, which completed their financings during the recent and robust rally, are sitting pretty. They can weather the short-term storm and are well-oiled to move forward when this correction bottoms and reverses. Those companies are the strongest ones to check out when this correction looks gloomiest.

B) Has the management remained the same? Unless the top financial and/or technical people blew out the door, in recent weeks, the story probably hasn’t changed much. Companies which built a strong technical team are resilient and powerful. They will move forward.

C) Have the properties come up dry? One of the reasons you invested in a uranium company was because it announced it had “pounds in the ground.” Some companies have more than others. Some went to the expense and trouble of completing a National Instrument 43-101, which independently confirmed the quantity and quality of the uranium resource. If that changed – and the company announced, “Sorry, nothing there after all,” or announced, “Hey, we were kidding,” that’s one thing. If you haven’t heard that, or read a news release announcing that, then the uranium didn’t walk away or move onto a competitor’s property. It’s still there.

Next time, when the markets are racing higher, and you feel like you won the lottery, consider this bit of biblical advice. The old joke goes, “When did Noah build his ark?” The answer of course is: Before it began to rain.

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